Japan’s national security depends on scaling clean power

A four-step pathway to strengthen Japan’s energy security

Key highlights: 

• Japan could reach 80% or more clean power by 2040, exceeding current policy targets
• Rising power demand from AI data centres and semiconductor manufacturing creates a major opportunity to anchor long-term clean investment
• The funds needed to expand renewable power and strengthen national energy security amount to JPY 38 trillion through 2035. But all of this can be designed to be profitable investment for the country’s long term investors. 

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Tokyo, 17/02/2026 07:00am: The Climate Bonds Initiative has published the paper, Renewable Power Is Key to Japan’s Energy Security, outlining how scaling up domestic clean power can strengthen Japan’s national security, economic resilience, and strategic autonomy. 

Japan is one of the most energy import-dependent major economies in the world, with 87.4% of its energy supply imported in 2024. This reliance exposes the country to geopolitical risk, global price volatility, and supply chain disruption, elevating energy policy from an economic issue to a national security priority. 

Energy dependence exposes Japan’s national security 

Diversifying fuel suppliers offers only limited protection against global market volatility and shipping risks. Japan’s challenge is not renewable energy resource scarcity, research from the Ministry of Environment shows that domestic wind and solar resources could theoretically power the country twice over.  

Instead, the central constraints are the inadequate national transmission line network and deployment speed. 

Scaling up clean power generation from solar, wind and nuclear sources offers Japan a pathway to energy independence while supporting regional revitalisation, the development of new industrial clusters and long-term economic resilience. 

Japan’s electricity demand is projected to rise by 5.8% by 2034, driven largely by data centres, AI facilities and semiconductor manufacturing. If met through imported fuels, this growth risks deepening exposure to global volatility. If supplied through domestic clean power, it can underpin long-term offtake agreements and accelerate renewable investment at scale. 

A feasible pathway to 80% clean power by 2040 

Recent modelling shows that Japan could exceed the 60-70% clean power target in its 7th Strategic Energy Plan and reach 80% or more clean power by 2040. Declining costs of solar PV, offshore and floating wind, and battery storage make this pathway increasingly viable, with wholesale renewable power prices projected to decline by 6% by 2035. 

Achieving this transition would require around JPY 38 trillion in investment through 2035, equivalent to roughly 25% of Japan’s planned JPY 150 trillion GX programme, with costs substantially offset by avoided fossil fuel imports. 

Four steps to strengthen Japan’s energy security 

To unlock Japan’s clean power investment opportunity, Climate Bonds outlines four priority actions: 

1. Upscaling transmission and distribution capacity across power grids (as per the existing METI plan)
2. Fast-tracking planning and permitting for renewable energy deployment
3. Expanding distributed energy systems
4. Using long-term offtake agreements to mobilise low-interest capital 

Together, these measures would enable Japan to accelerate clean power deployment at the pace required by current security, economic, and industrial imperatives. 

Sean Kidney, CEO, Climate Bonds Initiative: 
“Scaling up domestic clean power in Japan is not only about emissions reduction. It is fundamentally about national security. With the right policies in place, Japan can reduce external dependencies while unlocking significant investment opportunities and long-term stability.” 

Expanding domestic renewable energy is one of the most effective ways for Japan to reduce structural vulnerabilities, stabilise long-term energy costs, and strengthen national resilience in an era of heightened geopolitical risk. 

Download the full report here: Renewable Power is Key to Japan's Energy Security | Climate Bonds

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 Contact for Interviews and further information:  

 Yumiko Watanabe 

T: +81 8043540021 

E: yumiko.watanabe@climatebonds.net 

 Notes to the editor:   

About the Climate Bonds Initiative: Climate Bonds is the leading international non-governmental organisation mobilising global capital for climate action. More information on our website here.