The Road to COP30

The recent Sustainable Debt Global State of the Market H1 2025 gave us a comprehensive picture of the sustainable finance markets during first half of 2025 (H1 2025), but perhaps more importantly looks ahead to some crucial next steps and key areas of discussion that will impact the sustainable finance market in the near term. And as we draw to the final few months of the year, all roads lead to Belem. 

What to expect at COP30 

In November 2025, COP30 will be held in Belem, Brazil, giving the host nation the unique opportunity to spotlight climate solutions that are pivotal to protecting natural resources and landscapes within its geography, particularly the Amazon.   

Marking 20 years since the entry into the Kyoto Protocol and 10 years since the Paris Agreement, the focus this year will be the updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) of each country. There are calls for the current commitments to be more ambitious; ensuring that emission reduction targets are compatible with climate science, dealing with the socio-economic impacts of climate change on vulnerable populations, and unlocking climate finance.  

Key areas of discussion at COP30 that impact sustainable finance 

Adaptation and resilience 

Ramping up adaptation and resilience (A&R) investment to avoid major economic and social losses is critical, with only 14% of climate finance currently going towards resilience. Resilience criteria can unlock bond financing at scale, but resilience taxonomy uptake requires a supporting policy framework. The Climate Resilience Principles and the Climate Bonds Resilience Taxonomy define what credible A&R investment looks like and provide screening criteria under the Climate Bonds Standard so issuers can certify projects that help people, assets and ecosystems vulnerable to the impact of climate change withstand climate impacts while also supporting mitigation where relevant. 

Agriculture and deforestation 

 From droughts to floods, farmers are already feeling the effects of a changing climate. COP30 will see notable attention on the role of the agriculture, forestry, and land use sectors in climate mitigation and resilience.  

The agrifood sector contributes to 35% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including 21% of emissions coming from production, and 42% of methane emissions. Transforming the entire value chain, from farm-level through to consumption and waste, is an essential part of both the climate crisis and the pathway to a liveable future. 

The Climate Bonds Agrifood Transition Framework provides a pathway by aligning with global transition guidance, classifying companies by readiness, and requiring near-term action, board oversight, and transparent reporting. Its Sector Criteria (e.g., Agriculture Production, Deforestation-Free Sourcing) set clear eligibility tests for bonds and loans, enabling investors to support measurable emission cuts, removals, and nature-positive supply chains. 

Tropical Forest Forever Fund 

The TFFF was presented by the Brazilian government during COP28 in Dubai and will be a top financing priority of Brazil’s COP30 presidency.   

The fund's financing model combines public investment with private, aiming to mobilise about USD4bn annually for distribution among countries with tropical forests. Further, it operates as a revenue-generating investment fund, paying for results, rather than funding projects; it rewards standing forests, instead of compensating for avoided deforestation. 

During London Climate Action Week in 2025, the TFFF strengthened its global partnerships, reaffirming its role as a link between public and private sectors for climate and biodiversity. 

Investing in methane abatement 

Methane has been responsible for 30% of total warming since the Industrial Revolution and is the second largest contributor to global warming after carbon dioxide. It is an extremely potent but relatively short-lived greenhouse gas compared to carbon dioxide. This means rapid reduction in methane now could have a massive impact on global warming before 2030, helping to avoid catastrophic climate change and crucial climate tipping points. Despite this, there have not been sufficiently concerted or unified efforts to reduce methane emissions globally.   

Halfway to the Global Methane Pledge’s 2030 deadline for a 30% reduction in anthropogenic emissions, COP30 presents a crucial inflection point to assess why methane abatement has not received the needed focus or investment and to explore opportunities for rapid action.   

Following the Global Stocktake’s calls for accelerated action on methane emissions, updated NDCs will likely be examined to assess whether they address methane emissions sufficiently. Development of methane abatement targets is a key step to developing methane-specific policy and channelling investment to abatement. Climate Bonds’ methane policy guidance provides actionable recommendations for policymakers to catalyse increased investment in methane abatement   

Taxonomy interoperability  

Sustainable finance taxonomies work best when they are built on shared, science-based principles.   

Following the Central Bank of Azerbaijan’s release of its global green taxonomy roadmap at COP29, efforts will materialise at COP30 to ensure global taxonomy interoperability, a key enabler of cross-border climate investment. 

Interoperability principles are being developed by Climate Bonds, UNEP FI, and PRI, building on the G20 SFWG principles. These will support the implementation of interoperable national taxonomies that form the foundations of robust national sustainable finance policy frameworks. 

 Conclusion 

COP30 in Belem will be a critical test of whether private capital can turn climate ambition into action. Key discussions will focus on scaling adaptation and resilience, transforming agrifood systems, and accelerating methane abatement, supported by initiatives like the Tropical Forest Forever Fund and interoperable sustainable finance taxonomies. With updated NDCs and global collaboration on the line, COP30 will determine if ambition translates into real-world policies, investments, and partnerships to protect the planet and its inhabitants. 

For Climate Bonds’ expectations for COP30, as well as the key details from the sustainable debt market in H1 2025, please visit: